Sunday, March 17, 2013

How we got to our current Healthcare System.


American Health Care is an ecosystem, which evolved rather than a planned system. It is a crazy quilt, which covers most Americans.  

 Planned healthcare systems include those of Rwanda and Taiwan (1995).   Unlike in the US, in which entrenched opposition by rent seekers has prevented reform, the 1994 upheaval and its relative poverty let  Rwanda start from scratch.   The British created their National Healthcare system in 1948. Prior to this they had a patchwork system in which employees were covered but not their dependents.  Canada developed its Medicare system in 1968. 

With evolution some species are efficient and some are not. 




And healthcare is complicated





Events in American Healthcare

1798 US Marine Hospital for Seamen was founded by the government.  It was the first American socialized medicine.

1846 the American Medical Association was created.  Healthcare was very primitive and there was no system.  People hired their doctors who could do little. 

The American Healthcare system evolved after WW2.  Before WW2 people paid for the doctor's service and hospitals were run by churches and charities. 

1900 Aetna Life insurance offered health coverage for disability from disease except TB, VD, insanity, or disability due to alcohol or narcotics.

1904  - the first workman’s compensation Law in Maryland was declared unconstitutional.  The AMA counsel on medical education standardized the education for doctors and by 1910 had organized half of American doctors.

In 1911 Theodore Roosevelt campaigned on creating a national health insurance system and lost.
In 1912, the College of Surgeons sets standards for hospital accreditation.  Health insurance companies defeated state attempts at universal health insurance.

In the 1920s healthcare was medieval.  It consisted of lotions that did not work and was a trivial part of ones budget.  In 1900 the average annual healthcare budget was $5 was spent, which would be $100 today.  2.9% of the family budget was spent on sickness and death. 

Hospitals were poorhouses where the indigent went to die usually started by Churches .  They were non profit.

1920 – 29  effective medicine, antibiotics became available and hospitals became a place to have babies.

By the late 1920s hospitals had empty beds. People spent more on cosmetics than medical care. 

1927 President Coolidge convened a committee to address growing health care crisis in terms of access and cost.    Heart disease became and still is the leading cause of death.

1929  Baylor Hospital started a subscription service and in the depression it became popular and was known as Blue Cross. But not many people bought it .  The first HMO was founded in LA

In 1935 Social Security was passed providing economic support for the elderly.  At AMA’s insistence national healthcare was removed.  

1935 - WW11 wages were limited and employers used fringe benefits to attract workers
9 % of population in 1940 went to 63% in 1963.   People with good jobs got care through work, and everyone else looked to government.  Costs were spread over a large group. 

1939 California Physicians service became the basis for Blue shield, a prepayment plan for physician’s services.

1040 Penicillin came into wide use and 12 million of 132 million had health insurance.









1943 The IRS rules employer based healthcare to be tax free 

1945  President Truman supported national health insurance but it failed after being portrayed as communist. 

Medical care is fee for service, as pre-paid plans are barred by most states. Since for profit insurance companies are permitted to charge lower premium for the healthy they overtake Blue Cross. 

1960 to 80 medical school enrollment doubled and the number of specialists increased.  There are 700 insurance companies In the US.

In 1965  Medicare and Medicaid were introduced.    Physicians could price discriminate.   Medicaid covers health and long-term services for 59 million low income Americans most being working families.  The sickest 1% make up 25% of spending.   Medicare covers hospital and drug cost for those over 65.  By now 6.6% of the family budget was spent on healthcare.

1969 Nixon announces a healthcare cost crisis healthcare spending is 7.1% of GDP and by 1973 HMO act is passed Enrollment only reaches 10 million.


1980 DRG payments.   From ww2 to 1980 most doctors were fee for service in private practice.  After 1980 capitation spread.  Hospitals use price discrimination.

1980 – 90 Healthcare cost continued to rise.  The country moved to manage care which fixed cost.
Corporations begin to buy up hospitals hospitals.  In 1983 President Reagan changed to a DRG system which fixed payments to hospitals by disease.    Congress expanded drug company rights through  increased patent protection.   By 1990 drug company profits were 25% of revenue. 

1993 President Clinton proposed a national health insurance.   This was the 8th attempt at national healthcare and was also defeated.

1997 drug companies were allowed to advertise directly to consumers.  US  life expectancy reached 77 years and healthcare spending 14% of GDP

2000 President Bush signs the Medicare Prescription Act covering drugs.  Healthcare cost reach 16% of  gdp.  62% of workers participate in employer health plans.  Only 57% of children covered through their guardian’s health plan

Insurance companies merge resulting in 3 for profit and 2 non-profit controlling 90 percent of the market.

 By 2010 Spending reaches 2.6 trillion.


The US relies on doctors and hospitals to provide care.   
In 2014 the affordable care act will require all people to have health insurance.  Those who don't get it though their employer or a government program would be required to purchase it on their own or through an insurance exchange.

2010  - Over considerable opposition the Affordable Care Act is  signed and in 2012 the Supreme Court declares it constitutional.








Healthfair for the uninsured.




The Bottom Line: Healthcare from Softbox on Vimeo.






Friday, February 8, 2013


At the Affordable Healthcare Conference at Virginia Mason

Dan Berwick spoke about using science as a basis for medical decisions looking out globally to see where US healthcare ranks, and learning in large systems.   Provost notes it is studies that make it possible to learn and improve performance.  Without feedback there is no improvement.  Knowledge begins and ends in data, but there has to be some change in the middle to learn.  Enumerative type studies are done when conditions are stable whereas an analytic study is done to improve a process.   


VM’s CEO Gary Kaplan pointed out that most important outcome is return to function and importance of also evaluating the patients experience.   The Everett Clinic’s CEO Rick cooper spoke of reducing cost by 25%, reaching 90% generic Rx, and the 49% rule is when you don’t believe 49% of what you peddle.  And Group Health’s CEO Scott Armstrong spoke about the changing incentive system.  Mark Mora from GHC spoke about the value of having patients actually make informed decisions after they have watched a video.  In American medicine this is revolutionary.  


Nobel prize winner Bernard Lown, MD has shown that half the stents inserted are unneeded.  Some hospitals compete on quality and some on quantity. 




We need to take the greed out of healthcare citing the patenting of colchicine, payments for EPO.  It is pernicious and worse than theftThe should be the minimum moral standard. 



 We heard that innovation needs to prove itself.   Washington State created an office to evaluate new technology for effectiveness which was vilified in an editorial in the Wall Street Journal for not approving a new technology which happened to kill people.   Interestingly this office was instigated by radiologists, who were threatened when the ENT docs were starting to purchase MRIs to scan sinuses.  Developers of new technology should have to prove its effectiveness before they sell it. 

Another problem in lowering costs is that the guilds are protecting their turf, preventing health workers for working to their full capacity.   In business jobs flow to the lowest skilled ie. McDonalds.  In healthcare that is blunted.

The discomfort with talking about caring for the poor, talking about comparing our healthcare with other countries (Rwanda has 98% of its citizens insured), discussing end of life care leads to a system which serves the medical industrial complex but not its users.
Berwick says America needs to have a civil discourse.    Calling scientifically graded decisions  government run medicine is priming which is meaningless in debate. 

Speaking of government the Alaska Federal Healthcare Network  provides remote medicine throughout  the state of Alaska.  The feds are so smart in Palin country.







A most interesting  talk was by Rich Onizuka, CEO of Washington’s Insurance exchange which is to come online 10/14.   It has taken 3 years to set up.  Only 19 states have taken the challenge.  He likened this to creating Turbotax.   The best part of Obamacare was that up to a certain income your health insurance will only be up to 2 % of your income.   The plans will be rated by the percent of medical loss so you can compare.  If you are a web developer making  $40000 a year you will only pay 2% for your income for healthcare.  

Washington Healthplanfinder 


Monday, January 21, 2013


Wisdom of Crowds

  Scott E Page  - Coursera  The Diversity Prediction Theorem


Where does collective wisdom come from?
People make predictions based on different models.   We know more accurate individuals lead to more accurate predictions. 
However, in addition, a more diverse crowd leads to more accuracy.

Example :
Amy predicts 10   error (10-18)^2  = 64
Belle predicts 16   error  (16-18)^2 = 4
Carlos predicts 25 error (25-18)^2 = 49     

Average error = Total error/3     = 117/3   = 39

Average value is 17
Actual value is 18

How accurate is the crowd?  Crowd error  =  (17-18)^2 = 1

Diversity
Amy   (10-17)^2 = 49
Belle  (16-17)^2 = 1
Carlos (25-17)^2 = 64

Average diversity = 114/3 = 38

 Because 


In the example the crowd error 1= the average error 39 –  the diversity 38
For the wisdom of crowds to occur the crowd error needs to be small or it is not wisdom.  The average error needs to be large or it is not a hard problem, so the diversity must also be large.   The diversity comes from people using different models.   Individual ability and diversity are equal partners.



The Madness of Crowds comes from like-minded people that are all wrong.

Large CE  + Large AE – Small diversity

Saturday, January 19, 2013

Fire Time  - At sunset, for those on Puget Sound looking east it appears that Seattle is burning.

Sunday, January 6, 2013


 Innovation

The percolation modelof innovation.  With each coin flip each square has a chance of turning grey: % P.   Innovation occurs when there is a continuous path from top to bottom.   It is not until P > 59% that there is a tipping point and a huge increase in innovation.   This is why often there are several inventors competing to see who can be first.  To have innovation society needs to support the research that turns the squares grey.





 
The Solow growth  model based on labor and the use of machines shows that without innovation growth will level off




 Without innovation:


 
However the innovation multiplier  A makes labor more productive.   Government support that promotes innovation  includes government that is strong enough to protect property rights so people will invent,  Government that is weak enough not to take all the spoils,  and government and cultural support of cooperation. Trust varies in different cultures.